Main drivers for FOCUS reference scenarios for "Security Research 2035"


"No Land is an Island” –A protected EU homeland with external responsibilities
"Policy Drives All in a Have/Have-Not World” –Security Research on natural disasters and the global environment
"Security as Societal Science” –Research driven by societal factors
“Borderless Threats = Mission Creep” – The EU’s forced march toward a stronger Common Security and Defence Policy
“Inside Out“ – Inward coherence and governance opens the door to external policy”
Main Big-Theme reference
Future concept of comprehensive approach and future concept of EU homeland security
Natural disasters and global environmental change
Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection
EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks
EU internal framework
(as EU role determinant)
Comprehensive (societal, economic, and institutional) resilience to crises and disasters
X

X
X

Science and technology innovation
X
X

X

Practical strength of the “European Security Model”, as advocated in the EU Internal Security Strategy: addressing the causes of insecurity and not just the effects; prioritizing prevention and anticipation, and involving all sectors with a role to play in public protection
X
X

X
X
Asymmetry of capabilities of Member States, the EU, and adversaries – including regionalization vs. globalization of security
X


X

Convergence or divergence of security cultures
X



X
Extent of information and intelligence sharing, and early warning capabilities – including policies for information exchange
X
X
X
X
X
Decision-making tools based on joined-up situation analyses, including their use to secure public acceptance and support
X
X
X
X
X
Changing national security capacities and levels of asymmetry (relative difference between the capacity of nations to influence security affairs)
X
X


X
Whole of community approach based on technological facilitation and empowerment


X

X
Extent of dependency on technology, as well as of critical (inter)dependencies between technologies
X

X